Mexico | Spending on goods keeps consumption afloat in May

Summary

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported 1.4% growth in May, driven by spending on goods during the Hot Sale (1.7% MoM).

Key points

• Key points:
• Despite the monthly growth, the indicator showed a year-over-year slowdown (13.2% vs. 15.4% the previous month), due to lower growth in formal employment and deteriorating consumer confidence in a context of high uncertainty.
• Regarding consumption by type of establishment, online spending is 18.8% higher than in January, while spending in physical stores is 1.6% above that same threshold.
• With respect to gasoline spending (as a proxy for mobility), it fell (-)1.0% MoM in May (the fourth consecutive drop so far this year), with a year-over-year change of (-)5.5% (vs. 7.9% on average during 2024).
• We estimate the lower growth in demand will be widespread, such that the economy will show a contraction of (-)0.4% this year, with a recovery towards 2026 (1.2%).

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