Publications

Countries in the region, like Colombia, are developing open finance frameworks. To achieve innovation, competition, and inclusion, it's essential to modernize payments, establish governance that fosters participation, and create robust systems that protect information and customer trust.

At its June meeting, the Central Bank’s Board decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.50%. The monetary policy stance, measured by the ex-ante real reference rate, remains around neutral.

We raise the China GDP forecast based on the recent China-US Geneva Agreement and the 3nd round stimulus. We also analyze the recent economic development and the policy outlook.

The most interesting thing about last week’s ECB meeting was not the decision made, but the promise of hints as to what it might do next. Ultimately, the 25-basis point cut in the main reference rates had already been widely priced in by analysts and markets.

A notable development in recent weeks has been the rise in the 30-year Treasury yield, likely driven by growing concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and reduced global appetite for U.S. Treasuries as bond investors want to be rewarded for higher risks.

A key indication that Banxico's primary concern has shifted from inflation to growth is its acknowledgment, for the first time, that “since the inflationary episode has been left behind,” the fight against inflation is at a new stage.

Annual inflation in April surprises on the upside (5.2%), driven by regulated items and goods. Core inflation (excluding food) also increases. Doubts persist regarding the speed of future moderation. This result may lead to upward revisions of forecasts and uncertainty about the future monetary policy stance.

At its May meeting, the Board of the Central Bank lowered the reference interest rate to 4.50%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the ex-ante real reference rate, thus stands close to the level estimated to be neutral.